Edition: 2008-Q4
Downturns, upturns and media development
How far away is the “bottom” of the trough in the current economic downturn? Do we know what measures are needed to bring economic stability to the world?
The answer is “No, not yet” (at the time of writing). The economic engine has to be steered with great care to avoid going into the ditch on either side of the road. Governments are still “learner drivers”, it seems.
The problem is that the economy is a highly complex system with many inter-related variables. Nevertheless, however irritating and “out-of-our-hands” that things may seem, we can be certain that there will be an upturn. Complex systems like this, whether they define the weather or the economy, are cyclic. The need for now – for those of us outside of governments – is to work out where we should be when the upturn eventually comes around.
Whenever it occurs, the laws of economics will still apply, and this is a good time to reflect on what it will take for media to be successful in future.
The articles in this edition are all linked to market economics, because their success depends on the “business case” that is found for them. If there ever was a world where brilliant technical ideas were simply carried by the wind to success, this is not it.
Some of the “rules” for success are:
The more attractive the programme content, the greater the chance of success of the service. People do not want wires and resistors, they want programmes. All the technology in the world does not make up for boring programmes.
If people are going to have to pay for the programmes, they must do more than just want them... they must want them enough to pay the going price.
The lower the cost of making the programmes and the equipment needed to receive them, the greater the chance of success.
The lower the cost of the technical infrastructure needed to provide the service, the greater the chance of success.
The fewer alternative ways of getting the same kind of service (“substitutes”), the better the chance of success.
The greater the number of services which add to the experience or use the same equipment (“complements”), the better the chance of success.
Experience with technology in the past is that viewers will not pay a massive increment for a new version of what they have already.
Bearing in mind these “rules”, readers may care to evaluate the chance of success of the great ideas and systems described in this edition, and form their own opinions as they read about them.
Objectively, it doesn’t take long to see that the highest prospect of success probably comes with Internet applications such as catch-up TV. It has a lot on its side. Users and broadcasters need no investment in equipment or infrastructure – the users already have PCs.
Digital terrestrial television has matured now and works particularly well when the analogue “substitute” service is switched off. But it doesn’t take long to see that the job will be tougher for newer digital radio or television systems (e.g. DVB-H), because new broadcast infrastructure and new receiving equipment will be needed, and there will be “substitutes”. However, this doesn’t mean they cannot succeed.
The idea from CRC Canada is brilliant, but it will need work from the broadcasters to convince manufacturers to make open source handheld receivers.
Through all the economics, we must never forget that however difficult the job is, it will always be easier if there are common technical standards. We must continue to encourage new ideas; and, when they arrive, strive for common standards.
The economic downturn may be a barrier to new investment, but if we hold on to the rails and look where we are going, we can learn to drive well, and inventiveness and discipline will win through.
Lieven Vermaele
Director, EBU Technical
David Wood
Deputy Director, EBU Technical
15 December 2008
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