EBU Technical Review : No. 275 (Spring 1998)
Withdrawal of analogue TV services
The prospect of digital TV has led various Governments and regulators to suggest dates by which the existing analogue TV services might be withdrawn. For example, in the USA, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has announced that all analogue TV services will be switched off in 2006. Similar proposals have been made in Germany (2007), Italy (2008) and Spain (2010), whilst the UK is considering a "10 to 15 year timeframe". [1]
Broadcasters who are introducing digital TV services would probably welcome such initiatives. Announcing a date for the closure of analogue TV would emphasize to consumers that digital TV will eventually replace analogue TV. This would have the immediate effect of depressing the sales of analogue TV sets and accelerating the take-up of digital services. This would benefit the broadcasters by increasing the availability of their new digital services and, hence, reducing the cost-per-head of such services. By reducing the period of "simulcasting" (i.e. parallel operation of analogue and digital transmitter networks), it would also help to reduce the costs for broadcasters.
However, given the uncertainties about the speed at which consumers will adopt digital TV and the fact that no digital terrestrial TV services are yet on the air, it seems premature to announce precise timetables for the replacement of analogue TV by digital TV.
Broadcasters need to understand why Governments and regulators are preparing aggressive timetables for the withdrawal of analogue TV services. The principal reason is that they are keen to promote efficient use of the radio spectrum. Demand for the radio spectrum exceeds supply in many countries. This situation is certain to get worse. As digital terrestrial TV promises a 4:1 improvement over analogue, the transition to digital TV could eventually release a very large amount of spectrum. This released spectrum could be used either for more broadcasting (e.g. more digital services, or for high-definition TV as in the USA) or for other services (such as mobile radio).
A further factor is that some regulators are attracted by the concept of using spectrum auctions to decide how spectrum should be allocated. Inevitably, the financial prospects are extremely uncertain: several "successful" bidders in the spectrum auctions in the USA have returned the spectrum "unused" to their Government. Nevertheless, many Govern- ments will be keen to exploit any new opportunities for them to raise revenue.
Rapid take-up of digital TV would clearly benefit the consumer electronics industry but, as public service broadcasters, EBU Members must also take into account the needs of the public.
Market research in the USA [2] suggests that only about 50% of homes will have digital TV by the proposed date for withdrawal of the analogue TV services. This implies that about 50% of homes will still be dependent on analogue TV. Clearly, there is a problem here: either the analogue TV services will have to be maintained much longer than the FCC expects, or the market researchers have seriously under-estimated the impact of digital TV.
It is important to be realistic about the prospects for rapid take-up of digital TV. Few consumer electronics products achieve penetration of 3% of households within 3 years and only the most successful, such as the audio CD, have reached 50% within 10 years. In the case of digital TV, there will inevitably be resistance from some members of the public who will not be able to afford digital TV equipment, or who see no reason why they should not continue to use their analogue TV sets. Even worse, it should also be noted that an increasing number of households have more than one TV set. Every TV and every VCR must be replaced or equipped with a digital set-top box before the closure of analogue TV services.
There is not much experience to guide us in determining a realistic timetable for the withdrawal of analogue TV services. The nearest parallels are the withdrawal of the 819-line services in France and the 405-line services in the UK. The latter involved a 15-year period of simulcasting, ending in 1984. It might be thought that the transition to digital TV could take place even more quickly. However, circumstances were very different then. The last 405-line TV sets were manufactured in the UK at the end of the 1960s and they used valves, rather than transistors. At that time, the "life expectancy" of such sets was about 8 years. In other words, it was surprising that there were any 405-line sets still operating in 1984. Modern television sets last much longer, with a life expectancy of 15-20 years and, hence, we cannot rely entirely on the natural replacement of TV sets as the catalyst in the transition to digital TV.
More recently, various broadcasters – especially in Eastern Europe – have made or plan to make the transition from SECAM to PAL. As most modern TV sets can receive PAL as well as SECAM, this transition should be relatively painless, except for those people with older colour TV sets.
In most countries, it is the politicians who will set the timetable for the withdrawal of the analogue TV services. Depriving the viewers of their TV services is unlikely to win many votes!
Although there are arguments in favour of setting a date for the closure of analogue TV services, this date will almost certainly need to be revised, depending on the take-up of digital TV. In any discussions with their respective Governments or national regulators, broadcasters should support a realistic date for the withdrawal of their analogue TV services.
My personal prediction is that analogue TV services will need to be maintained for, at least, 15 years after the start of digital TV services. But, I could be wrong!
Philip Laven
Director
EBU Technical Department
The UK Government has issued a consultative document entitled "Digital television: the future" together with a report entitled "A study to estimate the economic impact of Government policies towards digital television".
For example, in September 1997, Forrester Research predicted that
"By 2007, 49% of American households will own digital receivers and
will watch digital television".
European Broadcasting
Union 