Welcome to the future, or rather the different possible futures. We've put together a series of research reports exploring the scenarios that are most likely to affect public service media, and in particular, European media.
The world is changing faster than most outlets’ ability to evolve. Yet public broadcasters can adapt by recognizing the direction of change, accounting for different possible outcomes and taking measures to future-proof their organizations.
Our downloadable reports offer market insights and critical trends that will allow you to prepare for these. For a quick summary, you can explore the key findings on this page.
Scenario planning is not about forecasting, but exploring the notable trends and uncertainties that can shape potential futures. Identifying barriers and accelerators for change are more important than accurately predicting the future. Scenarios should be used, not as an exact picture of what is to come, but instead to determine how we can position ourselves to mitigate against multiple possible outcomes.
Media organizations lie at the centre of the digital vortex, having to transform themselves within a continuously changing environment. This does not facilitate long-term thinking. In fact, only a healthy blend of short-term tactical decision-making (1-2 years), combined with medium-term strategic planning (2-5 years) and long-term vision (5-10 years) help prepare public broadcasters for what comes next.
More on this in the Future European Media Landscape report (page 10)
The potential futures of media markets rely on many unknowns. But one thing is certain: audience preferences and market conditions will continue evolving toward increased connectivity, and online modes of viewing and listening. Digital presence, and an increasingly agnostic distribution strategy are an absolute priority in the short term as this will be the cornerstone to survival in the longer term. None of the studies exploring the future envisages an alternative scenario diverging from this path.
More on this in the Outlook for 2032 Audiovisual and Audio report (pages 5-6)
Audiences will adopt aggregation platforms. And it is the tech giants who hold the keys to consumer technologies and data - so understanding user needs. These challenges converge around the core issue of PSM relevance. For public broadcasters to build a safer future, they must prioritize (1) understanding audiences, (2) interacting with Big Tech and (3) reaffirming relevance.
More on this in the Public Service Media Horizon 2027 report (page 6)
The consumers of the future will develop more liquid consumption behaviours, explained by their global mobility and increasingly fragmented attention. At the same time, they will be actively involved with media brands and form new types of online communities. Trust will remain crucial to them and will expand to include new dimensions such as digital identity.
More on this in the Future European Media Landscape report (pages 13-18)
Not only will audience’s habits change, but the fabric of the audiences themselves will also. While moving to new technologies, European populations are also ageing, moving away from cities in the west of Europe and towards them in the east, all while visiting offices less. The young need support to have their voice heard, while finding innovative ways of reaching out and communicating.
From production to distribution to end-audience, emerging technologies will redefine all steps of audiovisual and audio value chains while continuing to disrupt PSM’s competitive environment. Technological evolutions will continue to impact access to PSM services and apps in the short and medium terms, with the increased importance of smart TVs and smart speakers, for instance. Tech will also be paramount in the long run, with shifts including the adoption of more immersive environments.
Audiovisual markets will be torn between fragmentation and aggregation of content and services by increasingly powerful gatekeepers. A similar tension has been growing between the appeal for global content produced by media behemoths and the demand for local content. One unambiguous response to both challenges lies in deepening partnerships and fostering new collaborations around co-productions, journalistic resources pools, policy and wider societal initiatives.
More on this in the Outlook to 2032 Audiovisual and Audio report (pages 33-34)
The variety of sources of information increases daily, while the transparency of the hand that feeds them becomes more and more opaque. Consumers are increasingly moving to digital to state their needs, but trust in these platforms is low, and for good reason. PSM must both move to these platforms to service its audience, while also discovering new techniques to protect, as well as inform its audiences.
The future of media markets will not be defined away from value-related considerations. Values such as independence, trust and transparency will have to be re-examined and reinforced by new frameworks, fit for the new digital landscape. The ability to command an understanding of these values will be of utmost importance for media organizations to remain relevant in the next ten years and beyond.